Stock futures are trading well in the red this morning, following Tuesday’s weakness in the market with continued selling. Traders are moving away from equities following strength in the latter portion of August, but this trend has thus far reversed in early September as fears of an economic slowdown have risen. Additionally, mortgage demand has hit a 27-year low, as rising mortgage rates and higher prices have caused many to stay on the sidelines in the housing market. Later today, after the market opens, the S&P Final Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for August and the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index for August will be released, giving some insight into inflationary data and the broader state of the economy.
The stock market traded unevenly yesterday following the three-day Labor Day weekend. Equities traded sideways for most of the session before reaching their lows at the end of the session. Overall, the S&P 500 fell 19 points (down 0.42%), the NASDAQ declined 11 points (down 0.08%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 196 points (down 0.56%). Market breadth was negative, as decliners outpaced advancers by a 3.6-to-1.0 ratio. Energy issues were among the best performers, boosted by stronger prices for the related commodities. However, materials companies were amongst the worst, though many sectors finished in the red.
In commodity news, oil prices climbed yesterday, trading around $87 per barrel and marking a 10-month high. Supply cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia over the past few months have helped to drive oil prices higher, and demand increased during the summer travel season. U.S. Treasury bond yields were mixed yesterday, with short-term rates rising and long-term ones falling. The yield curve remains sharply inverted, as short-term rates are trading well above those with longer durations, which usually portends a coming recession. Traders have been pricing lower odds of an interest-rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, more commonly known as the fear index, rose near the end of the trading session following several days of declines, as traders demanded more protection against price volatility.
Several economic reports will be released in the days ahead. These include U.S. productivity and labor costs for the second quarter on Thursday, while wholesale inventories will be reported on Friday. Additionally, several Federal Reserve regional presidents will give remarks on the economy in the coming days, which should provide some insight into future interest-rate policy decision making. Elsewhere, several dozen earnings reports of mostly smaller companies will be released in the days ahead. All together, we think most eyes will be on the regional Fed presidents in the days ahead. - John E. Seibert III
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not hold positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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