Despite a steep sell-off at the start of August, stocks closed out the month on an up note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8%, placing it at an all-time high and lifting its year-to-date advance to 10.2%. The S&P 500 did even better, gaining 2.3% for the month and 18.4% for the year. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ composite lagged, with a 0.6% gain in August, but it is up 18% in 2024.
Historically, September has been the worst month to be in equities. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 stock index has averaged monthly losses of 2.3% over the last decade. Ahead of today’s opening bell, the futures for the major U.S. indexes were pointing to a decline following the three-day Labor Day weekend.
Turning to the economic calendar for the holiday shortened week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) was scheduled to release its manufacturing index for August this morning. Wall Street is looking for a reading of about 47.5%, up from the 46.8% reported for July. If close to the mark, it would represent the fifth consecutive month of contraction. (Percentages above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 represent a decrease.) Also today, the Census Bureau was due to release its Construction Spending index, where the consensus is looking for a month-to-month increase of 0.1% for July, versus a 0.3% decline in June.
Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) results for July. Analysts are estimating that there were 8 million openings for the month, down from 8.184 million in June. Additionally, the Census Bureau will release its numbers on July factory orders, where expectations are calling for a month-over-month increase of 4.5%, versus the 3.3% dip experienced in June. Also, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its Beige Book report. This review of economic conditions will be closely perused by traders for any clues as to the central bank’s thinking ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is coming up in two weeks.
Thursday brings the ISM’s report on the non-manufacturing (service) economy for August. The index is widely anticipated to remain on the plus side, with a reading around 50.9%, down from the 51.4% registered in July. This would mark a second straight month of expansion.
The week wraps up with the August Jobs report on Friday. The Street is currently looking for nonfarm payrolls to show an increase of about 164,000, up from the 114,000 jobs added in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.2%, versus 4.3% the month before. These figures will also play into the Fed’s upcoming decision on whether to begin cutting its overnight lending rate. Fed Funds futures are suggesting a nearly 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction. – Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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