The U.S. stock market may get off to a soft start this morning, as we head into the new week. Overseas, the markets have been struggling today, due to concerns about economic weakness in China. On our shores, the S&P 500 Index futures have been under some pressure in early morning trading.
In economic news, few major reports will be released today. However, tomorrow we will get a look at the retail sales figures for the month of June. The retail sales report tracks consumer demand across a wide range of categories, and is seen as an important measure of the broader economy. Also tomorrow, the monthly industrial production figures will be published. Later in the week, the housing market will be an area of focus. On Wednesday, housing starts for the month of June will be released, followed by the existing home sales figures on Thursday.
In the corporate arena, the second-quarter earnings season has just commenced. Last week, we heard from a few large banks, and for the most part, the numbers were encouraging. Today will be quiet with just a few releases scheduled. However, tomorrow we will receive reports from several major financial corporations, including Bank of America (BAC), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). Investors will likely be looking over these issuances for signs that the financial sector is starting to stabilize. In general, the second-quarter earnings season will probably be a mixed bag. Most analysts expect that the majority of corporations will post weak numbers. However, it is possible that many companies will perform better than expected, and also provide encouraging guidance for the second half of the year.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index has made considerable progress over the past several months. Specifically, the market has rebounded about 26% from the low point reached last October, and is also showing an 18% advance this year. Many of the challenges that weighed down stocks in early 2022 now seem to be more manageable. Inflation has started to ease, and the economy has not yet slipped into a severe recession despite the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary program. Nevertheless, investors should probably act with some caution, in our view. Stocks could be vulnerable to profit taking, especially if investors are confronted with disappointing news. - Adam Rosner
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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