Stocks started the week on an up note, highlighted by a record close for the Dow Industrials. Looking to the new day, futures are pointing to a continuation of yesterday’s momentum. In overnight trading, the markets in Asia had a mixed session. Meanwhile, stocks in Europe are showing modest losses. Elsewhere, oil prices have moved lower, with West Texas Intermediate down about 1.7%, to around $80.50 a barrel.
Investor confidence got a boost on Monday, following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the lead bank will begin to cut rates before inflation gets down to its 2% target. He also believes that the U.S. economy is not likely to experience a “hard landing”. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next policy meeting is scheduled for the end of July. The Fed Funds futures suggest a less-than-10% chance for a rate cut at that time, but the probability for a quarter-point reduction in September currently sits at greater than 85%.
In the meantime, earnings season continues to gain steam. Among the larger names scheduled to report this week are ASML (ASML) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday, and American Express (AXP) on Friday.
This morning, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales were flat in June on a month-over-month basis. This compares to consensus estimates of -0.2% and May’s revised increase of 0.3% (previously 0.1%). On a 12-month basis, sales increased 2.3%. Later today, the same agency will report on the monthly change in business inventories for May, where expectations are calling for an uptick of 0.4%, versus an increase of 0.3% in April.
Looking at the economic calendar for the rest of the week, we’re scheduled to get June housing starts on Wednesday morning, with analysts forecasting a slight increase to 1.31 million, compared to the 1.277 million logged the month before. We’ll also get the figures for building permits last month, which are anticipated to come in around 1.4 million, compared to 1.399 million in May. On Thursday, the Department of Labor will release the latest figures on initial jobless claims. Wall Street is looking for the number to rise to 229,000, from 222,000 the week before.
Summing up Monday’s moves for the major U.S. indexes, the Dow Jones Industrials gained 210 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 was up 15 points (0.3%), and the NASDAQ climbed 74 points (0.4%). – Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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