U.S. stock futures are suggesting the major indexes will start today’s session to the upside. In overnight trading, markets in Asia closed higher. Meanwhile, the major European indexes are mostly in the plus column. Elsewhere, oil prices have also advanced with West Texas Intermediate up about 0.6%, to around $73.40 a barrel.
Stocks began the week on an up note, as investors await two key economic reports this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be released on Wednesday, with the consensus calling for a slight uptick to 0.3%, versus the 0.1% increase registered in May. Thursday brings last month’s Producer Price Index, a data set that is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve. There too, it’s widely expected to show an increase to 0.2%, versus the 0.3% dip recorded in May.
The hope is that both indexes will show that inflation continues to recede, which would suggest the central bank is getting closer to ending its monetary tightening efforts. As it stands, the consensus on the Street is calling for another quarter-point increase when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reconvenes later this month, which would raise the overnight target rate of interest to between 5.25% and 5.50%, marking the highest level in 22 years.
However, we would caution that once the lead bank ends its hikes, investors should not expect an immediate unwinding of the increases imposed since the Fed began its inflation-fighting initiative in March of last year. Indeed, Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly cautioned that borrowing costs would need to remain elevated for some time. Thus, the focus on interest rates is likely to continue well into 2024. It’s also worth pointing out that, based on the P/E (price to earnings) ratio for all stocks we review (recently at 17.4), the market is much closer to the top of 19.3 reached in early January of this year, than the low of 11.0 from mid-March of 2020.
Elsewhere, in addition to the latest inflation data, earnings season officially kicks off this week, with second-quarter financial releases due Friday from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Summing up Monday’s price moves, the Dow Jones Industrials advanced 209 points, or 0.6%, the S&P 500 was up 10 points (0.2%), and the tech-laden NASDAQ gained 24 points (0.2%). - Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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