Before The Bell
The first trading week of June was a roaring success for the bulls, as the major market indexes built off of their April and May rallies in a big way. Over the five-day stretch, which saw outsized gains during the week’s final session (more below), the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite hit an all-time high, the S&P 500 Index finished within a stone’s throw of its record high, and the Dow Jones Industrials were the biggest gainer among the large-cap averages. The notable buying was fueled earlier in the week by optimism of the continued reopening of the U.S. economy, with more states relaxing its lockdown restrictions. Then later on in the week, much better-than-expected employment data fueled the very bullish close to the week. The reopening news and the jobs report allowed investors to overlook weak reports on manufacturing and nonmanufacturing and the big spike in social unrest across the nation’s largest cities over the last 10-plus days. All told, the Dow 30, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500 Index, and the small-cap Russell 2000 were up 6.8%, 3.4%, 4.9%, and 8.1%, respectively.
The highlight of last week’s aforementioned bullish week of trading was Friday’s session. The bulls were out from the get-go, with the Dow opening up more than 750 points to the upside, and the initial gains and then some were held to the closing bell; the Dow 30 briefly traded more than 1,000 points to the upside before finishing with a gain of 829 points. The investment community was emboldened by an unexpected report on the nation’s labor market. Before Friday’s opening bell, the Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 2.5 million in May. The expectation was that nine million-plus jobs were lost last month. The surprisingly strong jobs creation, along with a decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3%, gave a boost to stocks as the data furthered the growing narrative that the U.S. economy is on its way back and the second half of the year should produce strong growth, perhaps, according to some economic pundits, at north of 10%. The employment figures continued the move on Wall Street from fixed-income securities and into riskier assets. From an equity perspective, there were plenty of good news, with all of the 10 major sectors well into positive territory. Likewise advancing issues swamped declines on both the Big Board and the NASDAQ.
Looking to the new week, the question on the minds of investors is if the market may have come too far too fast, with the Dow Jones up more than 9,000 points over the last 50-plus trading sessions. We think that with second-quarter earnings season still several weeks from kicking off, investors will continue to trade on U.S. economy reopening news and that may put some more wind in the sails of the bulls. The aged-old adage, “don’t fight the Fed” may also be in place right now, as the central bank’s unprecedented accommodative support is providing a tremendous monetary backdrop for stocks. That said, our sense is that investors should continue to look for the stocks of companies with strong balance sheets and growth potential, as they may be best positioned to withstand what will likely be an ugly coronavirus-driven second-quarter earnings season for Corporate America next month.
The economic calendar will be highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s latest two-day monetary policy meeting, which commences tomorrow morning. Investors will be eagerly awaiting Wednesday’s afternoon Fed statement and the accompanying commentary from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose comments will be monitored for clues as to how the U.S. economy is doing during the current pandemic and when the central bank believes that growth in output will return. The Fed commentary has the potential to drive trading, so we would recommend that subscribers be ready for Wednesday’s announcement at 2:00 P.M. (EDT). It should be noted that over the last decade, trading has historically been more contained in the days immediately prior to the Fed announcement, but given that we are in unprecedented times that might not necessarily be the case right now. Given the monetary focus, investors may want to keep a close eye on the banking stocks, which rallied last week as bond yields moved off of their earlier-year historic lows.
Before the market’s open, the equity futures are pointed to a continuation of last week’s buying stateside. Investors should be aware that factories in Germany suffered their steepest decline in production on record in April. The euro zone’s largest economy saw output slide 17.9% month-on-month in April, worse than the consensus estimate of 16%. On a positive note, the major European bourses, which were trading nearly 1% lower, have rallied and are now in positive territory as trading moves into the second half of the session on the Continent. This trading pattern overseas may suggest that the bulls will once again be hard to stop in the week’s first trading session. Momentum is clearly on their side right now, and may get a boost this morning from the news that New York, which has been the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis stateside, is beginning phase one of its reopening plan, with manufacturing and construction activities ramping up today. Stay tuned.
– William G. Ferguson
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
