After a relatively rare positive week, the major U.S. indexes closed lower on Monday on relatively low volume. Russia’s defaulting on its foreign debt obligations didn’t help to lift the mood on Wall Street. Reflecting that country’s lack of access to its assets due to sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe, it marked the first time Russia missed a payment in over 100 years. Meanwhile, there were signs that the U.S. economy was not immediately losing steam. Durable goods orders for the month of May came in higher than expected. Also, pending home sales were up 0.7% last month, ending a string of six down months.
Otherwise, judging by past rallies that have fizzled, the market is still adjusting to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to rein in inflation. Specifically, the lead bank has taken a more-restrictive monetary policy stance, which included a three-quarter-point increase to the benchmark short-term interest rate at its June meeting, the largest hike in 28 years. The Fed also began selling $30 billion of Treasury holdings and $17.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities. In three months, the Fed plans to double the monthly bond selling to $95 billion. This decreases the amount of liquidity or money supply in the economy, with the goal of lowering demand and ultimately reining in inflation. This monetary tightening is likely to take some time to play out, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester recently suggested it would take two years to reach the goal of 2% annual inflation.
To recap Monday’s totals, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 62 points, the broader S&P 500 shed 11 points, and the tech-focused NASDAQ lost 83 points, or about three-quarters of a percentage point. Looking at the major market sectors, most groups ended in the loss column, led by consumer discretionary and communication services each shedding about 1.1%. On the plus side, energy stocks came out on top, rising 2.8%, while utilities gained 0.8%. Elsewhere, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, rose 1.4%, to about $109.15 a barrel.
As we approach the opening bell, U.S. stock futures are indicating a positive open for the start of today’s trading. Elsewhere, Asian markets were up overnight, and stocks in Europe are trading in positive territory. Meanwhile, oil futures are up 1.5%, to about $111.35 a barrel.
Looking ahead to Thursday, the PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation figures for May are due, as well real disposable income and consumer spending for that month, along with the latest numbers for initial and continuing jobless claims. These will be followed by the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for June, where a slight deceleration is expected from May’s reading of 56.1%. (Figures above 50% indicate expansion.) Also, May totals for Construction spending are due to be released.
– Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
