The U.S. stock market may get off to a constructive start this morning, as a busy week on Wall Street commences. Over the next few days, investors will receive some key inflation reports, as well as an important policy decision from the Federal Reserve. As we were writing this piece, the S&P 500 Index futures were trading slightly higher.
In economic news, there are no major reports scheduled for today. However, tomorrow the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the month of May will be published. Most analysts think the numbers will show that prices rose about 4% during the month, on a year-over-year basis. On Wednesday, the monthly PPI (Producer Price Index) will follow. Also on Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will conclude its two-day policy meeting, and will offer an interest-rate decision and some prepared remarks. The vast majority of traders expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at this juncture. That decision may well make some sense, given that inflation, although elevated, has been moving in the right direction. In addition, the banking sector has weakened lately, and could deteriorate further in a tighter capital environment. It should be noted that if the central bank actually lifts rates, or issues overly hawkish comments, traders may be caught off guard, and the market could become volatile.
In the corporate arena, a couple of widely-watched companies are slated to deliver profit reports this week. After the market closes today, we will hear from Oracle Corp. (ORCL), a leading software company. On Thursday, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) will weigh in with its numbers. These companies are leaders in the technology sector, and investors will likely be paying close attention to these reports.
From a technical perspective, the stock market has made notable progress over the past several months. The S&P 500 Index is now sitting at the 4,300 level (roughly 20% higher than the low point reached last October). Although it is hard to predict if the market will move higher from here, there have been some positive developments lately. Specifically, small and mid-sized stocks are now starting to join the rally. This development is important because it may suggest that traders are more fully committed to the broader market. In addition, quite a few issues are now near their 52-week highs, and also situated above key moving average levels. – Adam Rosner
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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