The futures market is mixed this morning, with the Dow futures trading in the green and the S&P and NASDAQ futures trading well in the red. The former has been boosted by a strong performance from Dow-30 component Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), which posted better-than-expected quarterly results and strong guidance for 2023. Elsewhere in the market, a few large retailers have issued quarterly results and updated outlooks, with Macy’s (M) to the upside and electronics specialist Best Buy (BBY) to the downside. A few key economic reports hit the tape this morning, including initial jobless claims of 190,000, which were below expectations and marked the seventh week under 200,000. Additionally, the final U.S. fourth-quarter 2022 productivity was revised lower to a 1.7% gain from 3%, while fourth-quarter 2022 unit labor costs exceeded expectations as wage growth continues. These reports have been a key sign of higher inflation. The markets sank on the news, suggesting a weak start to the trading day.
The market started positively yesterday, as news from China reported that manufacturing data was strong. However, the markets quickly moved to the downside as a few Regional Federal Reserve Presidents stated that interest rates would likely have to be higher for longer. This included Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who indicated that he expects the federal funds rate will reach between 5.00% and 5.25% (no higher than investors’ consensus) and will need to stay there “well into 2024”. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed he was open to both a 25- or 50-basis point hike at the March Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. This scared stock market participants, who sold some of their holdings, while bond yields increased on the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day barely above breakeven levels and up 5 points (+0.02%). However, the S&P 500 finished down 19 points (-0.47%), and NASDAQ declined 76 points (-0.66%). Moreover, market breadth was not strong, as decliners outpaced advancers by a 1.3-to-1.0 ratio. Energy issues were among the best performers, while utilities stocks and REITs were among the worst, likely hurt by rising interest rates.
In commodity news, oil prices fell yesterday as continued fears about a global recession impacted demand expectations. Elsewhere, U.S. Treasury Bond yields largely increased across the board, and several issuances hit multi-year highs as expectations have risen for rising future interest rates. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, traded unevenly and ended the day slightly lower.
A few economic reports will be released tomorrow, including the Standard & Poor’s U.S. Services Final Purchasing Managers’ Index for February and the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index. Additionally, several hundred companies will report quarterly results after the bell today and before the opening tomorrow. This largely represents the last portion of the earnings season. Overall, we think most eyes will be on any inflationary data. - John E. Seibert III
At the time of this article’s writing, the author held positions in one or more of the companies mentioned.
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