Before The Bell
Wall Street will shortly start the second week of February following a steady run of advances over the initial five-day trading span. Better economic data, optimism about an uptick in vaccinations, expectations that new stimulus spending and relief payments will be passed, and a diminution in the trading frenzy in previously low profile issues seen in late January all contributed to the market's uptick and should combine to lift the spirits of investors going forward. All told, stocks roared ahead last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising past 31,000 and the NASDAQ nearing 14,000. Given the action in the futures now, an extension of the early February rally would seem likely.
In the coming days, there will be less in the way of critical economic data being issued than in the initial week of this month, when we saw reports on manufacturing activity, the services sector, the trade balance, productivity, weekly jobless filings, and the January survey on job creation and unemployment. As noted, these issuances were at times better than forecast, but as in the case of the January employment data, the figures suggest the business upturn is quite fragile. In fact, with just 49,000 jobs added last month, it was a disappointing report, on balance.
This week, the lone expected data points of note will be the weekly jobless claims and the Consumer Price Index. With stimulus payments probably in the offing over the next several weeks, investors will be looking more closely at inflation. We do not see a shift from the low inflation trends long with us just yet, but can’t rule out some inflation creep in the years ahead. One guidepost will be the yields on Treasury notes. Specifically, the 10-year note, which had returned as little as 0.40% in 2020, is now offering a yield that's three times as large at 1.17%. Our sense is that this number will rise in the coming months, but not enough to provide an inflation scare or provide a good alternative to equities.
Meanwhile, the first jobs report of the Biden Administration was better, but hardly uplifting, as 49,000 jobs were added in January. Still, that was an improvement from the revised loss of 227,000 positions in December. Also, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%. Now, that might ordinarily be cause for optimism, but in this case the likelihood is that many discouraged workers left the workforce and so weren't counted as jobless. Also, wages rose grudgingly and the labor force participation rate eased a trifle. In sum, the economic recovery is still fragile.
Finally, the high-profile growth stocks, such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), look good going forward. Expectations are that earnings will be up sharply in the first and second quarters of this year from depressed 2020 levels. And, with stocks as richly valued as they are, a good bottom-line showing will probably be needed to keep equity prices up.
– Harvey S. Katz, CFA
At the time of this article's writing, the author did not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
