The U.S. stock market may get off to a muted start this morning, as a new week on Wall Street begins. In an interview aired last night Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the economy remains healthy, and that the central bank will be careful about reducing interest rates. The news, while not too surprising, seemed worrisome to traders. Meanwhile, it will be a light week for economic reports, leaving investors free to focus on the corporate sector. As we were preparing this report, the S&P 500 Index futures were down about six points (0.15%) in pre-market trading.
As noted, just a few economic reports will be issued this week. This morning, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services Index for January will be released. Over the next few days, we will also get a look at the nation’s trade balance, the weekly initial jobless claims, as well as the wholesale inventories report. It is worth mentioning that numerous Federal Reserve officials will be presenting remarks at events this week, and Wall Street will likely be paying close attention. At this juncture, it is unlikely that the Fed will reduce interest rates at its March meeting. Rate cuts are still expected later this year, although probably not as many as some traders had anticipated.
In the corporate arena, many large companies have yet to deliver fourth-quarter earnings reports. This morning, Caterpillar (CAT) and McDonald’s (MCD) posted their numbers. Tomorrow, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will weigh in with its results. On Wednesday, we will hear from Walt Disney Company (DIS).
Meanwhile, the stock market has been performing surprisingly well. Specifically, the S&P 500 Index just moved beyond 4,950 and is now not too far from the 5,000 mark. Pushing stocks beyond 5,000 would likely be a major accomplishment for the bulls. Notably, this key level corresponds to a large round number and may hold “psychological” significance for investors.
However, caution may be warranted. The stock market has climbed dramatically over the past few months, with little consolidation along the way. As a result, some investors may be wondering if the market might soon start to pull back. From a sector perspective, the technology group continues to show leadership, driven by enthusiasm for AI (Artificial Intelligence) applications. However, this is a new technology in its promised manifestations and it is hard to know how much impact it will have in the near term, and exactly which companies will benefit. – Adam Rosner
At the time of this article’s writing, the author had positions in Walt Disney Company (DIS).
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