As we approach today’s opening bell, stock futures are suggesting a mostly positive start to the final session for February. In overnight trading, markets in Asia were mixed, and the major European indexes are moving in similar fashion. Elsewhere, oil prices have moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate up 2.4%, to around $77.55 a barrel.
If stocks fail to rally, then it would mark a down month for all the major U.S. indexes. As it stands, the Dow is off 3.5% so far in February, while the S&P has lost 2.3%, and the NASDAQ is down 1%. With yields at their highest levels in more than a decade, stocks are likely to remain under pressure, as more investors turn to more-stable fixed-income securities. These include Treasuries, high-grade corporate bonds, and money market funds. The latter, after generating negligible returns for many years, are now yielding over 4%.
While earnings season is quickly receding into the rearview mirror, a number of consumer-facing companies are scheduled to report today. These include AutoZone (AZO), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Earlier this morning, Target (TGT) announced that sales for the holiday quarter edged 1% higher compared to the year before, but management’s earnings outlook for the year ahead was below consensus. These reports will provide additional data points that the Federal Reserve will take into consideration as it decides on its next move. The central bank’s next meeting is scheduled for March 21-22, at the end of which it appears likely to announce another quarter-point increase to its overnight lending rate.
Also on the economic docket this week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its February report on manufacturing activity on Wednesday morning. That release is widely expected to show that the industrial sector continued to contract. The same day we’ll also get the January totals for construction spending, where the consensus is calling for a slight uptick. On Friday, the ISM will issue its latest report on the services sector, which appears likely to show continued expansion in February.
Altogether, stocks started the week to the upside, with the Dow Jones Industrials advancing 72 points or 0.2%, the S&P 500 was up 12 points (0.3%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ posted the largest gains, rising 72 points, or 0.6%.
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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