Stock market futures point to a positive open to this day’s trading. No major economic data releases are on tap for this morning. The leading U.S. market indexes appear poised to post gains for the full trading week. In the first four days of the week, stocks were flat to down. Wednesday evening, however, share prices in the aftermarket, especially among the tech issues, moved higher, thanks to a favorable earnings report from NVIDIA (NVDA). The positive momentum carried into Thursday. In the fourth quarter, ended January 28th, the Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker recorded a 265% increase in sales and a 765% surge in GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) share earnings, year over year. The company is enthusiastic about demand prospects for computer hardware facilitating the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI).
This week, the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite seems on track to advance around 3%, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index, also aided by the popularity of AI-linked issues, looks to rise more than 2% and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average should step up by at least 1%. A solid, now-concluding, corporate earnings season is allowing investors to overlook the prospect of fewer-than-expected cuts to short-term interest rates, on the part of the Federal Reserve, this year. On a year-to-date basis, the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow are up approximately 8.5%, 7.1%, and 3.4%, respectively. To the end of 2024, barring any global “black swan” events, share-price performance largely will be dependent on the health of the economy and the consumer.
Next week, Wall Street will parse data, including measures of new and pending home sales, the S&P Case Shiller home price index, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, updated gross domestic product growth, retail & wholesale inventories, and initial jobless claims. Most prominently, the Street will get a read on personal consumption expenditures index momentum, as well as changes in personal income and personal spending. Generally, we expect a favorable showing, supporting the idea of a healthy U.S. economy. A recent report indicating continued modest levels of initial jobless claims and expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors provide further backing of such an assumption.
The Federal Reserve next meets March 19-20. Thus far, central bank officials have not wavered from their guidance for three one-quarter-point reductions in the federal funds rate, from the current 5.25%-5.50% range, during the second half of 2024. An expanding consensus of investors is shifting expectations of initial rate-cut action from March to June. Stocks have, in turn, reacted to this altered outlook, but not in a substantial negative way. Decent company earnings reports have been an adequate counterbalance.
Politics lends a fair measure of uncertainty, regarding stock trading through the close of this year. Voters are not enthusiastic about a possible rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. Meanwhile, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains hot, Russia has gained some ground on the Ukrainians in its invasion of their country, protests against Vladimir Putin have surfaced, and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to be a threat against shipping in the Red Sea. Also simmering in world politics are China’s military posturing toward Taiwan and North Korea’s tensions with U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
We reiterate careful diversification of individual portfolios, with a concentration in top producers of cash flow, more specifically, large cap equities across the tech, industrial, healthcare, and financial sectors. – David M. Reimer
At the time of this article’s writing, the author held positions in none of the companies mentioned.
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