Ahead of today’s opening bell, stock futures were hovering close to the unchanged mark. Meanwhile, stocks in Asia closed solidly higher, and the European indexes appeared headed for a winning session.
The economic calendar for this week includes several updates on the health of the labor market. This morning we’ll get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wall Street is calling for an increase to 7.49 million vacancies and separations, compared to the 7.443 million recorded in September. Tomorrow, we’ll get ADP’s National Employment Report for November. Analysts estimate the payroll processor’s nonfarm payrolls will show an increase of 166,000 positions, versus a gain of 233,000 the month before.
On Thursday, we’ll get the Department of Labor’s latest tallies on initial jobless claims. Forecasts are suggesting the number will increase by 2,000 compared to the week before, to 215,000 claims. This will be followed up with the more closely watched Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payrolls report on Friday. Analysts expect the reading to show an increase of 202,000 positions, versus the surprisingly weak 12,000 additions reported in October. Also, the unemployment rate is seen as ticking up to 4.2% (versus 4.1% the month before), while average hourly earnings inch ahead 0.3%, which would be down from a gain of 0.4% in October.
These reports come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for the year, which is set to conclude on December 18. Fed funds futures are indicating a 75% chance that the lead bank would lower its overnight lending rate by another quarter point, to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. However, recent comments by Fed officials suggest such a move is not guaranteed. John Williams, who is the head of the New York Federal Reserve, noted that the central bank’s 2% long-term inflation target “will take some time to achieve”. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that, although he expects another cut this year, data due to be released before the meeting (including the Consumer Price Index which will be out next week) could change his outlook on the path of inflation.
Summing up Monday’s moves for the major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrials lost 128 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 14 points (0.2%), and the NASDAQ finished the day 185 points (1.0%) higher. Notably, both of the latter two set new closing records. - Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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