Ahead of today’s opening bell, stock futures were suggesting a modestly down start for the major indexes. Markets in Asia were mixed in overnight trading. Meanwhile, the European indexes were showing modest losses. The economic calendar is pretty full compared to the holiday-shortened schedule for next week. The main event is the next rate decision from the Federal Reserve, which will be announced on Wednesday. While Wall Street largely expects the central bank to lower its overnight target rate by another quarter percentage point this week, the market will be more interested in any guidance on future moves that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may provide after the meeting. Currently, the fed fund futures are suggesting that another cut may not come until March of 2025.
This morning, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales showed a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in November, versus calls for a 0.6% advance and the revised October advance of 0.5% (previously 0.4%). The “core” figure, which excludes automobiles, increased 0.2%, compared to estimates of 0.4% and the 0.2% gain (previously 0.1%) registered the month before. Shortly before the market open, we were also due to get the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production for last month. Analysts were looking for a 12-month increase of 0.1%, versus the 0.3% decline registered through October.
On Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release a couple of closely watched figures for the housing market. Housing starts for November are forecasted to come in around 1.35 million, inching up from the 1.311 in October. We’ll also get the more forward-looking totals for last month’s building permits. Expectations there are also suggesting an uptick, to 1.43 million, from 1.419 million in October. Thursday will bring another key data point with the November totals for existing home sales. The consensus is looking for around 4.11 million units, up from 3.96 million in October.
Lastly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November will be out Friday. Analysts expect a year over year increase of 2.5%, up slightly from the 2.3% advance through October. The outlook for the core figure (excluding food and energy) is for an increase of 2.9%, compared to 2.8% the month before.
Summing up Monday’s moves for the major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrials lost 110 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 22 points (0.4%), and the NASDAQ advanced 247 points (1.2%) lifting the composite to a new high. –Mario Ferro
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not hold positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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