Stock futures imply a mixed open to today’s trading. This morning, investors weighed the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey result, released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, showing a decline of 14.5, versus an expected gain of 4.0 and November’s improvement of 9.1. This index has proven quite volatile this year, given the pressures of inflation and high interest rates on domestic goods producers. Should a recession be avoided next year, the survey ought to show a strengthening in manufacturing.
Also, leading up to this day’s opening bell, new industrial production and capacity utilization numbers (for the month of November) were set to be announced by the Federal Reserve. Economists were expecting a 0.3% month-to-month expansion of production, compared to a 0.6% decline posted in October. U.S. industrial output has been slowly rising, albeit unevenly, in 2023. With regard to utilization, the outlook was for a modest step-up to 79.1% from the previous showing of 78.9%. Capacity utilization is running low due to the same above-mentioned pressures. We believe both of these measures will stabilize, and possibly strengthen, in 2024.
It appears that the major domestic stock market indexes are on track to extend their recent rallies this week, advancing close to 3%, as a whole. Investor sentiment is quite positive, considering comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. At this month’s central bank meeting, Mr. Powell, along with the Federal Open Market Committee, reviewed economic and inflation data and decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. An easing inflation trend, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, provided the confidence to hold short-term interest rates at current levels. Most notably, Mr. Powell stated that the federal funds rate could fall to approximately 4.6% by the end of 2024, suggesting three rate cuts of about one-quarter point each.
The next two central bank meetings are scheduled for late January and mid-March. An increasing number of Wall Street analysts and market pundits are expecting a reduction in short-term rates as early as March; a comparatively larger population is still looking for the first cut to come in May. Consumers and businesses have become more cautious about spending and banks are less willing to lend out money. Though the Fed has suspended raising interest rates, it continues to not fully replace maturing bonds on its balance sheet, thereby sustaining a restrictive monetary policy. Some on the Street have surmised that the Fed will halt this “quantitative tightening” sometime next year.
In this holiday season, investors are in a good mood, especially in light of Chairman Powell’s recent comments. Year to date, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, now at record levels, is up more than 12%, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) has gained nearly 23%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ is up an impressive 40%-plus. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are at 52-week highs. We would not be surprised to see this “Santa Claus” rally extend to yearend.
Increasingly, 2024 is on investors’ minds. The gains realized this year likely will be difficult to repeat in the coming year. Currently, positive share-price momentum has been broadening beyond the “Magnificent 7” tech sector leaders to large cyclical and value stocks; interest in small and mid-capitalization issues has also begun to pick up. This trend may continue, going forward. In early 2024, investors could well trim stakes in some of their big tech winners and use related gains to fund purchases of less-expensive issues; too, cash in money-market accounts could be a source of such funding. Indications are that a recession will be avoided in 2024, auguring well for equities, overall. – David M. Reimer
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
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