After The Close
Mid-Day Update - 11:50 AM EST
Stocks are nicely higher at midweek, continuing their strong move over the past year. Right around the noon hour on the East Coast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 138 points; the NASDAQ is 24 points to the good; and the S&P 500 is showing a six-point gain. Market breadth is following suit, with advancing issues easily topping decliners on both the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
Part of the day’s bullish sentiment may stem from a feeling that the pending tax bill in Congress that proposes a lower corporate rate will be pushed harder to the finish line. Yesterday’s loss of a Senate race in Alabama will mean a slimmer Republican majority. Hence, there is additional motivation to pass legislation soon.
Elsewhere, this morning’s economic data contained more of the same type of contained inflation news that has been the case for some time now. The Labor Department reported a modest rise for November in the so-called core inflation figure that excludes volatile food and energy prices.
The tame inflation indicator probably won’t sway the Federal Reserve’s expected decision on interest rate policy this afternoon, though. It is strongly believed the Fed will raise rates by one-quarter percentage point today. If so, that would mark the third rate hike this year, and the fifth overall under outgoing Chair Janet Yellen.
Investors are broadly looking for another two or three increases in the Fed funds rate in 2018, in view of steady gains in employment and accelerating economic strength. Overall, though, the push up from record low rates these past several years has been slow in coming, in no small part as inflation has been muted. Low rates around the globe have also kept overseas investors interested in the relatively higher returns offered by U.S. Treasuries.
In other markets, oil prices are off about $0.40 a barrel, to $56.76 in NYMEX trading as an inventory gain in crude oil, as reported by the Energy Department, was offset by a similar-sized decline in gasoline inventories. Meantime, domestic oil production edged up to another record.
In the corporate world, shares of Finisar (FNSR) are soaring following word of a $390 million investment by Apple (AAPL – Free Apple Stock Report). The cash would be for a component manufacturing facility in Texas for its iconic iPhone.
Heading into the afternoon session, the mood on Wall Street remains upbeat.
— Robert Mitkowski
At the time of this writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
Before The Bell
The records keep falling on Wall Street. Indeed, following weeks and months of successive all-time highs in the major indexes, the Street fashioned still one more yesterday morning, as the Standard and Poor's 500 Index soared above 2,668 for the first time ever in the late morning. Meanwhile, as we neared the noon hour in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved above 24,500. It crested just shy of an all-time high at that point. Behind the latest surge, which followed a more modest uptick in the averages on Monday, was further market optimism, as aerospace giant Boeing (BA - Free Boeing Stock Report) came out with still more good news.
On point, that key component of the Dow-30 announced a dividend increase and an $18 billion share buyback. That one-two punch, along with notable gains in some other Dow issues, such as Verizon (VZ - Free Verizon Stock Report), on a brokerage house upgrade, combined to lift that index to the early triple-digit point gain. All the while, the Federal Reserve was starting its two-day FOMC meeting that is almost certain to end with another quarter of a percentage point increase in the federal funds rate. Still, there was not uniformity on the plus side, as the NASDAQ was just nominally ahead, at that time, as was the S&P Mid-Cap 400.
As to the Fed, the aforementioned quarter-of-a-point increase expectation was almost universal. So, that will likely not be the big story coming out of that get together. Rather, it will be the direction that the central bank figures to take in 2018, specifically how many additional interest rate hikes it is planning. Our sense is that we can look forward to two to three such increases; some are expecting four hikes. Meantime, the other big story is tax reform, which is now being worked on in Congress, where the House and the Senate are seemingly close on a compromise bill to be presented to the President for his signature.
The market then steadied into the afternoon after the Dow likewise had hit a new milestone above 24,550. However, while the S&P 500 held a modest gain, the NASDAQ, on further profit taking in the tech group, fell into the red, easing off by more than 15 points as we moved inside the final two hours of the trading day. The S&P Mid-Cap 400 also turned modestly lower for a time, as did the small-cap Russell 2000. In addition to the Fed, which, as noted, is expected to raise rates today, but not adopt a measurably more hawkish tone, there is the pending agreement on lowering the corporate tax rate.
This latter item has been a driving force behind the climb higher by the leading averages this year. And, with the likely beneficiaries being some of the large multinational concerns, the Dow has been outperforming the market of late. And, indeed, that composite was able to continue nicely higher into the close, albeit ending matters well off session highs, with a full-session gain of 119 points. However, the NASDAQ, the S&P Mid-Cap 400, and the Russell 2000 all closed lower, though not materially so, while gaining stocks, up modestly earlier in the session, ended in the minority, as half the leading stock groups faltered, led down by the utilities.
Looking out now to a new day, we see that stocks were grudgingly higher in Asia overnight, while in Europe, the leading bourses are now tracking somewhat lower. Also, oil down yesterday, is now higher so far today, while interest rates, which rose yesterday, are now up once again. Finally, the late backtracking yesterday is having little effect on the futures this morning, which now are suggesting a mixed open when trading resumes at 9:30 (EST) this morning. As we look ahead to further moves on tax reform from Congress and the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary affairs, it could be an interesting day. Stay tuned.
— Harvey S. Katz, CFA
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
