The U.S. stock market will likely open lower this week, as traders process the disturbing developments unfolding in the Middle East. Specifically, over the weekend Hamas, a militant Palestinian organization, launched a surprise attack on Israel, resulting in a hostage crisis and a pronounced military conflict. The flare up has the potential to destabilize Israel’s technology-heavy economy, while also creating imbalances in the global energy markets. As we were writing this report, the S&P 500 Index futures were down about 25 points (0.64%) in pre-market trading.
On the economic front stateside, few notable reports will be released today or tomorrow. However, on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will publish the minutes from its most-recent meeting. This report is of some importance, as it can provide a more-detailed look at the issues influencing the central bank’s decision-making process. On Thursday, the nation’s battle with inflation will return to the spotlight, with the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). Most investors expect the numbers will show that consumer prices rose about 3.6% during the month of September (year over year), which would be a step in the right direction. For some perspective, in June of 2022 the CPI registered a roughly 9% increase, which was notably higher than the level today.
In the corporate arena, the third-quarter earnings season officially kicks off this week. Specifically, on Friday we will hear from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). These major banks serve a wide range of retail and commercial customers, and are considered bellwether financial companies. Also on Friday, we will receive a report from BlackRock (BLK), one of the nation’s largest asset management firms. It is somewhat important that corporations deliver decent third-quarter reports and offer supportive guidance, given the challenging market environment.
From a technical vantage point, the S&P 500 Index lost considerable ground during the month of September. Notably, the selling that ensued over the past few weeks managed to bring the broader average all the way back down to its 200-day moving average (located at the 4,200 area). In early October, stocks started to stabilize, and even staged an impressive advance last Friday. However, it remains to be seen if that move will be the beginning of a larger rally, or simply a false start. – Adam Rosner
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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