The U.S. stock market is closed today in honor of a national day of mourning for President Jimmy Carter. Federal offices also will be closed and, therefore there will be no economic releases from the government. After serving as the 39th President of the United States from 1977 to 1981, President Carter spent much of the remainder of his life, which spanned 100 years, in humanitarian efforts, championing a number of charity organizations. The Carter Center, founded in 1982, works to improve the lives of the world's poorest people, while the Jimmy & Rosalynn Carter Work Project for Habitat for Humanity has helped raise funds and awareness for affordable housing since 1984.
The major stock averages delivered a mixed performance yesterday, fluctuating between positive and negative territory for much of a session in which there was no sector leadership on display. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 Index added 107 and nine points, respectively, while the NASDAQ Composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 both finished the uninspiring session 11 points to the downside. Weighing some on the latter two higher-growth areas was the continued rise in Treasury market yields, with the rate on the benchmark 10-year note topping the 4.70% mark, its highest level since last April.
Stocks were also under modest pressure on reports that President-elect Trump was considering declaring a national economic emergency to perhaps pave the way for proposed tariffs. Wall Street has recently been concerned that some of the incoming President’s policies may lead to a reacceleration in inflationary pressures that could force the Federal Reserve to take a less-dovish stance on monetary policy. The minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed “many” Fed officials supported a gradual pace of interest-rate reductions this year.
Before the resumption of trading in the U.S. stock market tomorrow morning, investors will receive the December employment and unemployment report at 8:30 A.M. (EST). Our sense is that the next several months of labor data will also play a huge role in how aggressive the central bank is on the monetary policy front in 2025. The labor data released this week, including a jump in the number of available positions last month and a decline in initial unemployment claims last week, to the lowest level since October, suggest that the labor market is holding up well. A continuation of this trend in the months ahead may also force the Fed to rethink how many times it cuts the federal funds rate. The Fed forecast for 2025 rate reductions was cut in half, from four to two, at the lead bank’s December FOMC meeting. - William G. Ferguson
At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not hold positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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